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2008-02-29

威力彩頭彩機率幾近零~身為愛台灣的你買不買

威力彩連11摃,什麼時候才「開胡」?教授機率統計的數學專家說,威力彩號稱中獎機率為2200萬分之一,機率「幾乎是零」,想中大獎只能「碰運氣」;明星高中的數學老師也說,想中頭彩已非關機率,「一切都是命」!撇開機率期望值不談(下文會用數字幫各位看官分析),每買一張100元的電腦彩券,其中大約26.75元會用於慈善事業,社會福利,全民健保,與國民年金,身為愛台灣的你,要在彩金累積到多少的時候進場買進才划算呢?








彩券成本只有73.25元
彩券銷售的盈餘大約26.75%,而其中
國民年金=公益彩券盈餘×45%
全民健康保險=公益彩券盈餘×5%
各直轄市、縣(市)政府應分配金額=A+B
所以從愛心能夠量化的觀點來看,一張彩券的成本大約是100-26.75=73.25




頭彩機率只有22085448分之1
威力彩頭彩要38個主號猜到6個數字,外加8個負號猜中1個,所以機率是
(6/38) x (5/37) x (4/36) x (3/35) x (2/34) x (1/33) x (1/8) = 1/22085448


彩金累積1617759066以上才值得投資
從期望值的角度來看,成本73.25的威力彩,要期望值73.25以上才損益兩平,所以
73.25 / (1/22085448) = 1617759066


太早進場買是幫奸巧的後進者抬轎?
從前面的假說來看,似乎前幾期的玩家都太笨了?當然不是!絕大多數的人都不可能像我分析的這樣,過分理性的來投資威力彩,相反的大家其實都帶著各種情懷來看待這電腦彩券。有人帶著大愛,覺得愛心絕對不是100元能夠衡量的;有人帶著對老婆孩子的思念,每期固定簽家人生日而中了大樂透!有人滿腔熱血,遊走公司各座位集資包牌,順便活絡同事感情;而我則如芸芸眾生,懷抱「一券在手,希望無窮」的信念,一次一次的含笑買進,含淚入眠...



徵求Bug tracking system達人~Bugzilla佳

有沒有人能推薦什麼簡單好用的bug tracking system,軟體開發測試用的,目前強力徵求抓蟲系統達人,會Bugzilla架設的更好喔!






2008-02-28

要贏!就要懂得認輸~奧斯卡的啟示反省股市投資

昨天公司總經理破天荒的email出勵志小品,場景從奧斯卡回朔到金酸莓獎的得主「荷莉貝瑞」,舉辦了二十多年的金酸莓獎」,每年都由評審們選出他們認為演技最爛的男女主角,卻很少有人願意出席領獎,沒想到,荷莉貝瑞不但盛裝出席,當主持人宣布她的名字的時候,還假裝一副不可思議地驚訝,雙手抱頭,然後興奮地說:「天啊!真想不到是我得獎!」隨後,帶著她所得到的奧斯卡最佳女主角獎盃上台,她的舉動讓現場的來賓與媒體幾乎都笑翻了。




接著,荷莉換上了正經的表情說:「 從小,我的媽媽就告訴我,想贏,要先認輸,輸了就輸了,一個不敢接受失敗的人,也沒有權利接受成功的機會。」荷莉的一番話,激勵了在場的來賓,也廣受媒體的喝采,隔天,幾乎各大報的頭版都是她的版面,荷莉因此搶盡鋒頭。

每天1萬人次瀏覽的Blog作者總幹事(本名黃國華)在<<收盤的人生中>>也說過同樣的話,「先認輸,在求贏」,在股市投資中,散戶總是不願意花時間做功課,一味聽信明牌,買在高點殺在低點,套牢之後不肯認輸,腰斬再打折,永遠沒有逆轉的一天。人生何嘗不是如此?我們常常因為自尊心作祟,抑或是自我成見過深,不願意卸下身段徹底反省,分析自己缺點學習他人優點,繼而錯失了下一個贏的機會!




2008-02-27

楚門的世界二~陳冠希敎您說英語

陳冠希慾照事件越演越烈,事情演變到現在有仿賓拉登全程英語宣言,連CNN都咋舌的大陣仗更勝胡錦濤的全程英語記者會,接著還有酒店狹路相逢謝霆鋒欲飽以老拳,三個未公開的足以震撼演藝圈的女星。與其說是要退出香港演藝圈計畫到好萊塢發展,還不如說好所有媒體跟觀眾已經在為他拍攝「楚門的世界二」(True Man Show II)。回頭說到他的賓拉登宣言與記者會,那個演講稿真是文法工整,內容有條不紊,發音標準,有網友建議他息影之後可以轉行當英文老師,有人更計畫把它的講稿編成英文敎課書的教材!




以下則是他記者會的全英文講稿

  Today I've come back to Hong Kong to stand before you,and account for myself,I've never escaped away from my responsibility. During the past few weeks,I've been with my mother,and my family,and love ones,to show support and care,and at the same time have their support and care for me.

  I admit most of the photos being circulated on the Internet were taken by me,but these photos were very private,and have not been shown to people,and were never intended to be shown to anyone. Their photos were stolen from me illegally,and distributed without my consent.There is no doubt whoever obtained these photos had been uploading them on the Internet with malicious and deliberate intent.

  This matter has intercalated to the extend that the society as a whole has been effected by this,and in this regard,I am deeply sad in it. I would like now to apologise to all the people for all the suffering that has been caused and the problems that have arisen from this.

  I would like to apologies to all the ladies and to all their families,for any harm or hurt that they've been feeling,I'm sorry.I would like to also apologies to my mother and my father,for the pain and suffering that I cost them during these past few weeks.Most importantly,I would like to say sorry to all the people in Hong Kong,I give my apology sincerely to you all,and reservedly it be,and with my heart.I know young people in Hong Kong look up to many figures in our society,and in this 好萊regard,I had failed,I had failed as a role model.However,I wish this matter would teach everyone a lesson,to all the young people in our community,let this be a lesson for you all,this is not an example to be set for you.


2008-02-25

預測王建民開幕戰先發~你別再受傷了

根據洋基熱身賽的輪值表,王建民今年應該又是內定開幕戰先發囉!去年雖然也是預訂開幕先發,但是因為賽前拉傷與這項殊榮失之交臂..希望今年別再出槌啦!好好把握這個機會,更要一掃季後賽被打爆的陰霾。Wang, go go go!


另外今年小曹跟小小郭也很有機會上大聯盟,加油!




關鍵珠璣~浮雲

神樣心情~追尋

風聲雨聲~聆聽

推推聯播~funP